covid19_ua

Аналіз "диванного експерта" відкритих даних по захворюваності на COVID19 в Україні

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Project maintained by vityok Hosted on GitHub Pages — Theme by mattgraham

Побудова прогнозів із використанням Tidyverts Fable

Це лише заготовка, сторінка роботі.

Завантаження бібліотек

library(tidyverse)
library(fable)
library(tsibble)
library(feasts)

https://fable.tidyverts.org/

Добові зміни

area_dyn <- read_csv('../covid19_by_area_type_hosp_dynamics.csv')

## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
##   zvit_date = col_date(format = ""),
##   registration_area = col_character(),
##   priority_hosp_area = col_character(),
##   edrpou_hosp = col_character(),
##   legal_entity_name_hosp = col_character(),
##   legal_entity_lat = col_number(),
##   legal_entity_lng = col_number(),
##   person_gender = col_character(),
##   person_age_group = col_character(),
##   add_conditions = col_character(),
##   is_medical_worker = col_character(),
##   new_susp = col_double(),
##   new_confirm = col_double(),
##   active_confirm = col_double(),
##   new_death = col_double(),
##   new_recover = col_double()
## )

daily_area_dyn <- area_dyn %>%
    select(zvit_date, new_susp, new_confirm, new_death) %>%
    group_by(zvit_date) %>%
    summarise(new_susp = sum(new_susp),
              new_confirm = sum(new_confirm),
              new_death = sum(new_death)) %>%
    filter(zvit_date > as.Date("2020-04-01"))

tle.dyn <- daily_area_dyn %>%
    as_tsibble(index=zvit_date)

Модель та графік

ap <- tle.dyn %>%
    model(
        ets = ETS(box_cox(new_confirm, 0.3)),
        arima = ARIMA(new_confirm),
        snaive = SNAIVE(new_confirm)) %>%
    forecast(h = "2 weeks") %>%
    autoplot(tle.dyn, level = NULL)

(ap
    + theme_light()
    + theme(legend.position = "bottom"))

Кількість активних випадків

active_st <- area_dyn %>%
    select(zvit_date, active_confirm) %>%
    group_by(zvit_date) %>%
    summarise(active_confirm = sum(active_confirm)) %>%
    filter(zvit_date > as.Date("2020-04-01"))

active.tble <- active_st %>%
    as_tsibble(index = zvit_date)

Модель та графік

ap.active <- active.tble %>%
    model(
        ets = ETS(box_cox(active_confirm, 0.3)),
        arima = ARIMA(active_confirm),
        snaive = SNAIVE(active_confirm)) %>%
    forecast(h = "2 weeks") %>%
    autoplot(active.tble, level = NULL)

(ap.active
    + theme_light()
    + theme(legend.position = "bottom"))

Активних та нових випадків у м. Київ

kyiv.dyn <- area_dyn %>%
    filter(priority_hosp_area == 'м. Київ') %>%
    select(zvit_date, active_confirm, new_confirm) %>%
    group_by(zvit_date) %>%
    summarise(active_confirm = sum(active_confirm),
              new_confirm = sum(new_confirm)) %>%
    filter(zvit_date > as.Date("2020-04-01"))

kyiv.ts <- kyiv.dyn %>%
    as_tsibble(index = zvit_date)

Стан та прогноз підтверджених активних випадків у м. Київ:

kyiv.active <- kyiv.ts %>%
    model(
        ets = ETS(box_cox(active_confirm, 0.3)),
        arima = ARIMA(active_confirm),
        snaive = SNAIVE(active_confirm)) %>%
    forecast(h = "2 weeks") %>%
    autoplot(kyiv.ts, level = NULL)

(kyiv.active
    + theme_light()
    + theme(legend.position = "bottom"))

kyiv.new <- kyiv.ts %>%
    model(
        ets = ETS(box_cox(new_confirm, 0.3)),
        arima = ARIMA(new_confirm),
        snaive = SNAIVE(new_confirm)) %>%
    forecast(h = "2 weeks") %>%
    autoplot(kyiv.ts, level = NULL)

(kyiv.new
    + theme_light()
    + theme(legend.position = "bottom"))

Повернутись на головну або повідомити про помилку